Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Is correction over???? - 27th May 2010

The most fascinating thing about financial markets have been the uncertainity. I completed my yesterday's post at around 12:00 A.M IST and Dow Jones at that time was trading 200 points down. By the time Dow closed after two hours (at 2:00 A.M IST), it was almost flat. It has spoilt my strategy built for the day :(

Anyways, bounce back in US markets from below 10000 gave instant shot of bullishness to the world financial markets today. Indian equity markets had a gap up opening today and gained strength during afternoon once Europe too had a gap up opening by around 2-3%. Finally, Indian bourses closed the day up by around 2.5%.

Commodities specific stocks regained some of the lost ground today. SAIL, Hindalco, Sterlite Industries were up 5-7% each while financial stocks like IDFC, and ICICI Bank too had a good day today, gaining around 2-4%.

Today's gain seems more of a short-covering on the backdrop of immense selling seen in the last few days. Provisional data also indicate lack of fresh buying by Foreign Institutional Investors (FII). According to provisional data, FII have been net-sellers by around 200 crores while Domestic Institutional Investors have bought equities worth 70 crores. This data is not encouraging, especially on the day when bourses were up by 2.5%.

Hence, the traders can adopt "Sell-on-rise" strategy, but close to 5000 levels for Nifty. The traders can sell Nifty June futures in 4970-4980 levels with stop-loss of 5070-5080 and target of 4750. Since tomorrow is expiry day, we might see fresh short positions being created, especially during afternoon session. Hence day traders can sell Nifty May around 1:00 P.M (when European markets open) with stop-loss of 1% from those levels.

Among the stocks, one may buy NIIT Technologies @ 182-185 levels with target price of 207 and stop-loss of 168. The stock fundamentally has been quite a performer in last few quarters, clocking Net Profit Margin of 23-25% which is quite good.

I would like to share one note of experience. If there arises a problem that put every country's economy into danger, then we can sit back and relax, because chances are bright that some way out will be found to tackle the same. In 2008 when global economy came into recession, every major country swung into action and took collaborative action to prevent the same and restore the confidence. Now if Europe issue balloons into a global problem, then one may take risk and invest into Indian stocks because chances are bright that some solution will be found... But.. Only if it derails every economy including USA.

As of now, European issue seemed not putting US economy into danger as various data including Employment, Retail Sales, Housing has shown an encouraging trend. Let's see how coming days / months pan out for Europe and rest of the world... Keep an eye on it...

Wishing you a great day tomorrow as It's TIME TO SAY GOOD BYE TO MAY SERIES!!!!

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