Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Renewed attempt to break crucial resistance zone, but fundamental concerns remain strong - 02nd June 2010

Indian Stock Markets had a volatile trading session today as it gyrated violently within a range. Throughout the day, Nifty traded in a range of 4950-4995. Only during the last half-an-hour, the market broken loose the range on the upside and closed the day at 5019, up by 1%.

Among the sectors, Telecom sector had a good day, with various experts talked about consolidation happening in the sector soon. Also, RCOM renegotiation with MTN flared the stock and it closed the day up 11%. Auto sector also did well after monthly sales report indicate decent growth trend in sales - best ever for Hero Honda and Maruti Suzuki.

Technically, the stock is managed to float above 200 day moving average but it is still trading below 30 days and 90 days simple moving average, which indicates bearish trend for the short term. Awesome Osciallator indicator is also giving a bearish signal. Provisional data released by exchanges give subdued picture as FIIs remain net sellers by 165 crores while DIIs have been net buyers by the same amount.

Though the encouraging sign is that Nifty is again closing in to the crucial resistance zone of 5060-5090. With US markets opened up on decent note (up 1%), chances of re-testing of 5060-5090 resistance zone is high. If it happens, then this will be its third attempt in last 2 weeks and probability of breaking this zone is higher this time. Thus, one may buy Nifty futures if it manages to break 5055 on the upside with stop loss of 4990 and target price of 5115. On the flip side, one may sell Nifty if it falls back to 4950 levels, with target of 4860 and stop-loss of 5015.

Stock specific, one may sell Hero Honda in 2005-2020 range with target price of 1850 and stop-loss of 2060. Technical indicators are giving strong buy signals but psycological levels of 2000 and strong correction from those levels 2 months back can give some heart to the traders. Cipla recommendation still remains intact.

Wishing you a great trading day tomorrow!!!

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