Sunday, July 18, 2010

Indian equities in midst of growth story and global slowdown, caution recommended - 19th July 2010

Indian Equity Markets on Friday had a volatile session on the back of flat US markets on Thursday and no major cues from the domestic markets as well. TCS announced its results on Friday morning, which have exceeded analysts' expectations. The stock in turn, went up by more than 7% and pushed almost every stock in Information Technology space.

The financial results have been so far satisfactory. Some decline is expected on sequential basis, and hence any positive suprise is taken with charm on the Dalal Street. Though companies in commodities space likely to feel more heat, as withdrawal of stimulus phase-wise will keep pressure on demand and hence, on the growth of these companies.

Provisional data released by exchanges on Friday have been good. Foreign Institutional Investors were net buyers by around 650 Crores while Domestic Institutions have been net sellers by around 300 Crores. In the derivatives segment, FIIs have been buying continiously in the futures segment but also writing Lower Strike Price Puts and Higher Strike Prices Calls. This indicates that FIIs see limited movement on the downside as well as on the upside from the current levels.

Technically, Nifty is likely to find some support in 5280-5320 range. The next strong support stands @ 5200-5230 range for the markets. If this level is broken, the next support is seen @ 5060-5080 range. On the upside, the major resistance is seen @ 5430-5460 range. If this resistance is broken on closing basis, then Nifty will find next resistance @ 5530-5550 range.

Stock-specific, Tata Motors-M&M pair trade has finally reached its target. Tata Motors hit its target price of 815 and closed @ 830. This pair trade strategy gave the profits of 52000 Rs. Tata Power too hit its target price of 1340, giving the profits of 6200 Rs per lot.

For the coming week, Cement stocks story can be retained. One may buy India Cements and Ultratech Cements around the current levels. For India Cements, one may keep Stop loss @ 99 and for Ultratech cements, one may keep Stop-loss @ 810. Tomorrow, one may sell Nifty if it rebounds from 5310-5330 levels @ 5340 with target price of 5280 and stop-loss of 5390.

Wishing you very best of luck for the coming week!!

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