Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Indian Stock Markets facing heavy head winds at upper levels, correction likely - 28th July 2010

Well RBI Quarterly Review Policy has finally come and thankfully brought no major surprises!!! Well, there has been so much of discussion happening in the economic circles regarding RBI stance in its quarterly review policy and whether it will take any major step to combat the inflation which is going steadily above 10%. Much to the relief of the markets, it has not brought any major surprises - Reverse Repo Rate up by 50 bps, repo by 25 bps, CRR remains unchanged.

Two major heavyweights - Reliance Industries and L&T have announced their results today. L&L results have been disappointing, but Reliance Industries Results have come in line with the expectations. As Reliance results have come after the market closes, we may see some positive action coming in the stock during early trade tomorrow.

Real-estate sector stocks have rallied after RBI didn't brought any major surprises in its review. DLF rallied by more than 2% and so do other real-estate stocks. The stock markets did rallied a bit after RBI announcement but closed a tad lower. Sensex though is able to give a closing above 18000 which is an encouraging indication.

Technically, the markets have been in a bit of over-bought zone. As results of the heavyweights have not been exceptionally great and RBI tightening its interest rate regime, these will surely put pressure on the equities in the coming few months. Any further rise can only be due to tremendous FII inflows and can be taken as good way to book some profits.

Dow Jones has opened flat and is likely to show some resistance around 10500-10550 mark. In such backdrop, we might see some flattish to negative opening in the market tomorrow. Also, we might see the unwinding of long positions for July series which might bring some more pressure on the indices.

Tomorrow one may adopt "Sell on Rise" strategy with major resistance levels now seen at 5450, 5470 in case of positive opening. One may put a stop-loss of 5487 and target price of 5420. In case of flattish opening, one may keep a resistance levels of 5435-5440 with stop-loss of 5455 and target price of 5410. For deep down opening, one may keep resistance levels of 5400, 5410 with stop-los @ 5430 and target price of 5360.

Wishing you a great trading day tomorrow!!

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